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How much impact can the wind have in golf betting?

Golf is not only a fascinating sport, but a very attractive game, betting-wise, both for the interesting matches offered to viewers and for the wide variety of markets offered to punters by top sportsbooks. If you want to find out everything about bookmakers and how they develop their offerings and set their odds, then it is more than certain that you need to be more attentive and more focused on analyzing the factors that can influence let’s say the outcome of a match, the performance of a player, the dynamics of the ball and so on. Some of these factors are rather explicit – such as, for example, an injury of a player – but there are also factors that are not so evident, but which can have a strong impact on a game either way. And subsequently, such factors influence the odds set by bookmakers and most profoundly they also influence punters’ betting choices and potentials for winning.

The role of wind speed in golf

One such factor is the weather and more specifically the wind speed! Have you ever considered the role of wind in affecting how a golf player performs? Or, how much does the wind influence the players’ scores? Or even, what difference does the wind make in a golf tournament? If you haven’t, it’s time you start doing so, because research has shown that there is indeed a direct effect of wind on golf scores. So, if you are a fan of golf betting, it is very useful to begin looking at the wind to make wiser choices and more strategic decisions.

In his book “Angles and Edges: A journey through the evolution of golf betting and the markets”, Bryan Nicholson, presents the results of his own study over the impact of wind on golf betting. In fact, he establishes a causal link between wind speed and scoring average in professional golf, illustrating that an increase of wind speed by one mile per hour results in an increase in the scoring average by 0.1 strokes per round. This means that there can be a difference of 2 strokes between a day let’ essay with a 5 mile per hour wind speed and a day with 25 mile per hour wind speed (25 – 5 = 20 miles per hour difference, 20*0.1 = 2 strokes difference). This is the expected average, but we should be careful enough to refrain from applying this kind of formula to unusually high wind speed records. Things are not the same there and quite frankly it is rather impossible to measure how much the wind speed will affect the scoring average in unexpected and turbulent weather circumstances.

Wind speed and golf betting

Knowing how the wind influences golf performance is in fact very useful for golf betting for two reasons. First, it is useful because it helps punters spot inconsistent odds offered by bookmakers or even find sportsbooks that are mispricing odds due to the fact that they often have little quantitative data to work with when making analyses. Thus, knowing how the wind makes a difference in scoring average, is critical in finding value bets. Second, it is useful because it helps punters better understand the sport, its dynamics and so it enhances their ability to make predictions and effectively select their bets.

Wind speed can also influence golf tournaments’ results and this can be a very interesting thing to know when you choose to bet on big events’ golf matches. The wind speed made a notable difference in two tournaments, whose overall conditions were held constant, while wind speed was varying substantially. In August 2020 and amidst the Covid19 pandemic, there were two tournaments held at the Celtic Manor Resort – the Celtic Classic and the Wales Open. First it was Celtic Classic (August 13-16) and then it was the Wales Open (August 20-23). Quite evidently, the context and the conditions in the fields were pretty much the same and so the role of the wind speed could be more clearly elaborated. Celtic Classic’s average scoring was higher compared to Wales Open, particularly as the first tournament was held in the mid of a generally mild weather, while the second tournament took place when there was a wind speed being continuously at 20 to 25 miles per hour.

Examining the weather conditions and specifically the wind speed can help punters make more sophisticated betting choices when wagering on golf matches. Wind speed is a factor that golf fans are considering when they watch a game, but it should also be a factor that golf bettors are considering when they make their bets. This can be even more important in live betting, where looking at the wind speed can really make a difference.

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